US Capitol attack marks the beginning of a prolonged period of insurrection

IF WEDNESDAY’S ATTACK ON the United States Capitol Complex was part of a coup d’état, then the American political system should be considered safe for the time being. The mob that ransacked the Capitol was disordered, leaderless, and appeared to have no coordination, or even direction. However, the broader militant movement that it represents is evolving very rapidly. If left unchecked, it will be able to turn its weaknesses into strengths and spell major trouble ahead for the already stormy waters of American politics. The nation’s law enforcement and security agencies must therefore prepare for a period of widespread insurrection, some of which will be armed and lethal in nature. Insurrectionist acts are likely to occur across the nation, and may last for months, if not longer.

WHO CARRIED OUT THE ATTACK? Wednesday’s attack was carried out by what can be described as the militant wing of the Trump movement. This wing is not strictly representative of the US president’s broader political base. Its members see themselves as vanguard soldiers who are prepared to take extreme action to avert Trump’s imminent departure from the White House. Such militant attitudes are not typical among Trump voters. Yet this vanguard is revered by Trump’s political base, a sizeable portion of which appears to be in support of Wednesday’s attack on the US Capitol. Indeed, early polling by YouGov suggests that over 40 percent of Republican voters strongly or somewhat support the attack on the US Capitol. Many members of this frontline force belong to organized militant cells, like the Oath Keepers, the Three Percenters, and —more recently— the Proud Boys. But these groups provide limited operational direction to their members, and were certainly not commanding Wednesday’s events. In fact, an audiovisual analysis of the attack shows that most of the assailants operated in makeshift groups and many didn’t even know each other’s names. There were no leaders directing the attacks on Wednesday. It is indeed likely that the militant figureheads of the movement were as surprised by the turn of events as the hapless members of the US Capitol Police.

HOW WAS THE ATTACK PREPARED? Some of the assailants were armed with clubs, shields, chemical irritants, knives and other weapons. It also appears that at least one group of insurgents arrived at the Capitol with ropes, which they subsequently used to scale its walls. This points to earlier planning and coordination, which likely involved at least some reconnaissance. Still, it is plainly evident that the assailants had not discussed what they would do once they entered the buildings. It is very likely that they never expected to be successful in their attempt. Indeed, they were probably stunned to find that breaching the temple of American democracy was so embarrassingly easy. Extensive discussions to storm the Capitol Complex took place on social media among the militants in the days prior to the attack. However, US law enforcement agencies have been notoriously dismissive of the danger posed by domestic rightwing militants. Most of their intelligence on these groups comes from social media analysis. But in the last few months, far-right militants have been abandoning en masse mainstream social medial, such as Facebook and Twitter, and congregating instead on online platforms such as Gab and Parler, which they consider conservative-friendly. This likely created large gaps in intelligence collection for law enforcement agencies, which were already suffering under the weight of chronic under-staffing, compounded by the pandemic.

WHAT DID THE ASSAILANTS EXPECT? As mentioned earlier, the militants who participated in Wednesday’s attack did not expect to be able to simply walk in the Capitol Complex buildings. Nor did they appear to have a concrete goal about what they were going to do once inside. Their actions after breaching the Capitol’s laughable physical security measures were both uncoordinated and bizarre. Some of them trashed various offices, many looted artwork and other items, and others took selfies and chanted slogans while waving Confederate flags and pro-Trump banners. It is likely that some of the attackers expected many thousands of others to follow them into the building; but the majority of the crowd stayed outside. It is also likely that they insurgents hoped that their actions would inspire similar mini-insurrections in so-called ‘red’ states, thus leading into a nationwide insurrection. This, however, did not materialize in any noteworthy scale. It is notable that many of the assailants did not appear concerned about the legal repercussions of their actions: not only did they not hide their faces inside buildings that are monitored by hundreds of surveillance cameras, but they also took photographs of themselves carrying out illegal acts and posted them online. They likely did so because they truly believe that Trump will remain in office after January 20, and as a result they will not be prosecuted for their actions under his watch. Many of them will now undoubtedly be expecting to be officially pardoned by the departing president.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW? Broadly speaking, political commentators seem to regard the assault on the Capitol as a blundering catastrophe for the Trump movement. Not only did it startle moderate Republican voters, who may have previously been sympathetic to the president’s dogged campaign to keep his job, but it also dissuaded the vast majority of Republican Congress members from challenging the election results. It therefore made the certification of Joe Biden’s electoral victory by Congress easier and faster than it would otherwise have been. However, this is not how this day will go do down in the annals of the Trump movement’s militant wing. Many of its members self-identify as nationalist revolutionaries, and will welcome the storming of the Capitol as the opening shots of what they see as the second American Revolution. Wednesday’s events marked the first time that the Capitol was ransacked by assailants since the War of 1812. The symbolism of this act, and the names of at least three people who died in the process as self-styled ‘martyrs’, will galvanize and inspire the militant wing of the Trump movement. It is worth pointing out that the assailants who took part in Wednesday’s attack do not live in Washington. They descended on America’s capital from nearly every state in the Union. Most of them are now on their way back to their home states, galvanized by their experience and ready for action. Few —if any— of them will be arrested in the coming weeks or months, just like few of them were arrested after the notorious 2017 Unite the Right rally. It is almost certain that acts of insurrection of various types —whether by groups or ‘lone wolves’— will continue to occur in the coming weeks. This realization is clearly behind the decision of the mayor of Washington to extend the duration of the curfew that is currently in place in the nation’s capital to 15 days. Other major cities across the nation will do well to follow that example.

A GROWING INSURRECTION At this point, the militant wing of the Trump movement can be more appropriately classified as a growing insurrection against the state. Its members, many of whom have military backgrounds and advanced familiarization with weaponry, are in possession of significant amounts of firearms. Not all expressions of this insurgency will be armed in nature, but lethality should be seen as an increasingly likely outcome of this campaign from now on. Some of these attacks will be carried out against infrastructure, but US authorities should also be prepared to defend against targeted attacks on specific individuals. One notable aspect of this insurgency is that it is directed, not so much against Democrats, but primarily against Republicans who are seen as ‘traitors’ to the Trump movement. Consequently, political protection measures aimed at safeguarding office holders (both state and federal) should be redoubled as soon as possible. Resources devoted to monitoring and collecting intelligence on anti-government militants should be given top priority within the security apparatus. Finally, government infrastructure should be protected in the same way that the French government protected public facilities following the November 2015 Paris attacks by the Islamic State. The list of potential targets to be protected should include private companies, such as the offices of The New York Times, The Washington Post, Facebook and Twitter, which are seen by the Trump militants as “enemies of the people”.

Perhaps most importantly, it is crucial that the militants who participated in the attack on the Capitol be isolated and rejected by the broader Trump movement and by the Republican Party as a whole. It should be assumed that the leadership of groups such as the Oath Keepers, the Three Percenters, and the Proud Boys, are in regular contact with senior Trump aides and other campaigners. These contacts must be scrutinized and deciphered, in an attempt to prevent further linkage and interaction between armed militants and the broader Trump voter base. Anyone in mainstream politics who cultivates links with these insurgents should be probed by law enforcement and, if found to have encouraged or participated in illegal acts, face legal penalties. The placement of this rapidly evolving threat to the top of the security community’s priority list must take place immediately. At this time, the threat these militants pose to the Republic is not existential. But if left unchecked, it can expand and spread faster than the security agencies’ ability to curtail it.

Joseph Fitsanakis
https://intelnews.org/2021/01/07/01-2933/

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