13/10/2016

Russia and China to Cooperate on Missile Defense - North Korea Expels Top Officials

A member of the Russian General Staff announced that Russia and China would expand cooperation on missile defense by conducting military drills. The two countries held joint naval drills that included missile defense earlier this year. The general also expressed Russia’s unease at the U.S. development of its own missile defense system in addition to its prompt global strike initiative.
The Cipher Take: The Russian general was quite explicit in describing the U.S. with adversarial language in his statements, and this has become more commonplace as the U.S.-Russia relationship worsens. Russia-China strategic cooperation is growing at the same time the rift between Washington and Moscow widens. Historically, strategic bonds between Russia and China have been relatively weak and Russia has needed China more than the other way around. However, missile defense could be an issue where Beijing and Moscow are on the same page, and is therefore fruitful ground for deeper cooperation.

A South Korean newspaper has announced that North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister and four other officials responsible for European affairs have been expelled from their positions and from the capital. Their punishment, according to the report, includes farm labor, which may extend to their families as well. It is believed the expulsions are a result of the defection of Pyongyang’s ambassador in London in July; high-level defections from the North have been especially prevalent this year.
The Cipher Take: The fact that this is an expulsion and not an execution suggests the Vice Foreign Minister may have a chance of getting back into the Kim regime’s good graces. Pyongyang has been known to allow chances at redemption in the past. Jang Song Thaek, Kim Jong Un’s uncle who was reportedly executed by either ravenous dogs, anti-aircraft weapons, or a flame thrower, was first exiled and forced to undergo ‘reeducation.’ His execution followed a brief period of reinstatement. The defection crisis has caused the regime a great deal of trouble, and, rather than address the source of discontent, it appears to be targeting scape goats such as these foreign ministry officials.

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